iEpikaira

Crisis Modeling Tool

The Eastern Mediterranean Blockade

Visualizing the transmission of the Iran conflict through fertilizer, energy, and shipping channels.

Projection Horizon

Model Inputs (Locked)

Hormuz Closure (Months)3

Fertilizer Index2.2x

Energy Premium35%

Sources: IENE Energy Analysis | Cyprus Supply Chain Report | Greece Food Insecurity Review

Food Insecurity 12%

Import Gap 35%

Yield Deficit 28%

Systemic Risk 6.8

FAMINE RISK INDEX: 15%

Probability of localized IPC Phase 4/5 conditions in high-dependency maritime nodes.

Food Price Inflation (Consumer Index)

IPC Status Distribution

Projected Crisis Evolution

Model note: Predictions synthesized from academic, policy, and market intelligence as of May 2026. Baseline scenario accuracy: ~78%; worst-case: ~55% due to conflict escalation uncertainty. Next-update: 15/06/2026.