Geopolitics expert who predicted the Iran war: "The Iranians have been preparing for 20 years" - How the Iran conflict will end

Laura Martin Sanjuan, Greg Heilman

Mar 9th, 2026

Jiang Xueqin, history professor, made three predictions nearly two years ago: Trump’s victory in the elections, the war in Iran, and the U. S would lose that conflict.

“The reality is that, right now, it’s a war of attrition between the United States and Iran,” says Jiang Xueqin, a history professor and geopolitical analyst who back in May 2024 made three striking predictions: Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections, the outbreak of war involving Iran, and the defeat of the United States in the land once known as ancient Persia and “that will forever change the global order.” These three forecasts have surprised observers around the world.

“Iranians have been preparing 20 years for this conflict,” he adds. “Now they have a pretty good strategy for how to weaken and ultimately destroy the American empire. So what the Iranians are doing is… they’re waging war against the entire global economy,” the professor said on the program Breaking Points.

“So they are striking the GCC countries (Gulf Cooperation Council). Not only are they striking GGC countries, American bases, they’re going after the critical energy infrastructure,” Xueqin explains. “They’ve blocked off the Strait of Hormuz, and eventually, they will go after water desalination plants, which is the lifeline of these nations because they don’t have freshwater supply.”

“The Iranians are actually threatening the very existence of Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Bahrain, Qatar. And why this is important is that the Gulf States are really the linchpin of the American economy.”

“So what they do is sell petrodollars and then they recycle the petrodollars back into the American economy through the investments in the stock market,” Xueqin said. “And right now, we now know that the entire American economy is propped up by A.I. investments in data centers. And a lot of that comes from the Gulf States.”

“So if the Gulf States are no longer able to sell oil and they are no long able to finance A.I., this A.I. bubble in the United States, then this A.I. bubble will burst,” he explained. “And when it bursts as well the entire American economy, which is really a financial Ponzi scheme.”

The professor also insists that “the United States military is not designed to fight a 21st century war. Remember that the military industrial complex came into being after World War II and was designed to fight the Cold War.

“That is what the American air defense system is basically. And that’s why we’re seeing this asymmetry,” Xueqin pointed out. “Where you have these million-dollar missiles trying to take out these $50,000 drones and it’s not sustainable in the long term.”

“What we are seeing really is the puncturing of the aura of the invincibility and enviability that sustained American hegemony for the past twenty years,” the expert concludes.

Source: https://en.as.com/latest_news/jiang-xueqin-history-professor-and-geopolitics-expert-who-predicted-the-iran-war-the-iranians-have-been-preparing-for-20-years-f202603-n/

Jiang Xueqin's Prediction: How the Iran Conflict Will End and Reshape Global Power Dynamics

Edited by iEpikaira

Jiang Xueqin, a Chinese-Canadian history professor and geopolitical analyst behind the YouTube channel Predictive History, has drawn significant attention for three major 2024 predictions: Donald Trump's election victory, the outbreak of U.S.-Iran conflict, and the consequential forecast that the U.S. would lose that war, fundamentally altering the global order.

Core Prediction: How the Iran War Will End

1. War of Attrition, Not Decisive Battle

Jiang argues this is not a conventional war with a quick resolution, but a prolonged conflict where Iran's strategy is to exhaust U.S. resources over time. He draws parallels to the Sicilian Expedition of ancient Athens—a major power overextending itself in hostile terrain.

2. Iran's Strategic Advantages

• Geography: Mountainous terrain and strong internal resistance favor defensive operations
• Preparation: "Iranians have been preparing 20 years for this conflict" and analyzed U.S./Israeli strike capabilities during the June 2025 escalation, according to AS.com
• Proxy Network: Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis understand U.S. military psychology and have developed asymmetric strategies to weaken American power

3. Economic Warfare Against the Global System

Jiang contends Iran is "waging war against the entire global economy" by:

• Targeting energy infrastructure in GCC states
• Threatening the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of global oil and LNG flows
• Potentially attacking water desalination plants critical to Gulf state survival

4. U.S. Military Limitations

He argues the U.S. military-industrial complex was designed for Cold War-era conflicts, not 21st-century asymmetric warfare: "million-dollar missiles trying to take out $50,000 drones is not sustainable".

Predicted Impact on Global Power Dynamics

1. Erosion of American Hegemony

Jiang states: "What we are seeing really is the puncturing of the aura of the invincibility and enviability that sustained American hegemony for the past twenty years" (source). A U.S. defeat would signal declining credibility and deterrence capacity.

2. Gulf States as Economic Linchpin

The GCC nations recycle petrodollars into U.S. markets, including AI/data center investments. If Gulf oil exports are disrupted, Jiang warns the "AI bubble" propping up the U.S. financial system could burst, exposing underlying economic fragility (source).

3. Rise of Multipolarity

• Russia: May benefit from U.S. strategic overstretch, potentially deepening military-technical cooperation with Iran
• China: Views Iran as a strategic partner in emerging multipolar frameworks; may promote diplomatic solutions that accelerate the shift away from U.S.-centric order

4. Domestic Political Fallout in the U.S.

A prolonged conflict could clash with the "America First" coalition that elected Trump, fueling war fatigue and political backlash as costs mount without clear victory (source).

Likely Endgame Scenarios (Per Jiang)

Jiang does not predict a sudden battlefield collapse. Instead, U.S. "defeat" would manifest as:

• Gradual erosion of political will and economic capacity to sustain the conflict
• Either a chaotic withdrawal (Afghanistan-style) or a negotiated settlement shaped by accumulated attrition
• A fundamental recalibration of global power, with reduced U.S. ability to unilaterally impose its strategic objectives

"A superpower is rarely defeated in a single battle. It is worn down gradually through accumulating costs, time, and internal pressure." — Jiang Xueqin