ΕΠΙΚΑΙΡΟΣ 
by Michael Rubin
Inclusiveness is not always a virtue.
Consider NATO, in which Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used his country’s de facto veto in a blatant attempt to extort fighter jets and concessions upon a laundry list of Turkish demands. Rather than enhance unity, Turkey now obstructs it.
The same is true with energy. Amos Hochstein, the Biden administration’s special presidential coordinator for global infrastructure and energy security, has repeatedly tried to tie Europe’s energy supplies to Turkey. First, he withdrew State Department support from the EastMed pipeline that would bypass Turkey and ship gas from offshore Eastern Mediterranean gas fields to Cyprus and Greece, from which it would connect to a pipeline that would pump the gas into the heart of Europe.
That plan, which was economically feasible and strategically wise, bypassed the anti-Western troika of Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Instead, Hochstein threw his support behind Iraqi Kurdistan’s efforts to export oil through Turkey, a scheme that an international arbitration court later deemed illegal. (His efforts to empower Hezbollah’s gas industry were simply the icing on the cake.)
But Hochstein is not alone. As Turkey’s deteriorating economy forced Erdogan to hold out an olive branch to the West, some Israeli officials mistook a tactical tone-down of his anti-Israel, pro-Hamas polemics with sincerity. They argued that a pipeline from Israel through Turkey rather than directly to Cyprus and southern Europe could help Europe attain energy security.
Israel’s belief that it can contain Turkey’s worst instincts mirrors Jerusalem’s traditional naivete toward China. Just weeks after Israel proposed making Turkey the cornerstone of a strategy to bypass Europe’s Russia dependency, Turkey and Russia agreed to discuss the construction of a gas export center in Turkey. As throughout the Ukraine crisis, Turkey simply sought to profit from both sides.
Perhaps the greatest achievement of the G20 summit in India was the announcement of an India-Saudi Arabia-European Union trade corridor. Under the scheme, India, the world’s most populous nation and fifth largest economy, will ship goods to the United Arab Emirates. Trains will then carry the cargo across Saudi Arabia and Jordan and into Israel. The Port of Haifa will load goods onto cargo vessels that will make the short hop to Greece. While the process may sound convoluted, it actually saves time and money and bypasses strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, and the Suez Canal.
In response, Erdogan threw a tantrum. He proposed instead a route by highway through Iraq and Turkey and argued that he would broker no route that bypassed Turkey. Put aside the fact that transiting the Strait of Hormuz or portions of Iraq and Turkey is risky. Relying on cross-Turkey transit would put Europe’s trade and security in the hands of the erratic and mercurial Erdogan. It would also deny much-needed trade and business benefits to moderate Arab countries, Israel, and Greece. The West should not confuse antagonists and partners.
As the EU reconsiders its energy security after Russia’s invasion and India considers its future trade, it would be naive to trade overreliance on Russia and Iran for overreliance on Turkey. In each case, the result is vulnerability to an unstable and hostile leader. Perhaps, one day, Turkey’s direction will change and it can be better integrated into the global economic and energy infrastructure. But until that day comes, the best strategy for the West is to quarantine Turkey. Never again should the West entrust its security to wishful thinking about what a regime might become rather than what its reality is. The response to Turkish blackmail should never be empowerment over other aspects of global security and economy.
Source: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/quarantine-turkey
